How to Exit a Deal That Missed Projections
When the numbers don’t line up with reality. Every experienced investor eventually faces a deal that doesn’t perform as expected. Maybe the renovation ran over budget, the market softened, buyer demand slowed, or the appraisal came in low.
When a fix and flip misses projections, the worst move is pretending it hasn’t.
The goal at that point isn’t to “win big” — it is to exit intelligently, protect capital, and avoid turning a manageable miss into a major loss.
Here’s how experienced investors approach exits when a deal falls short of expectations.
Step 1: Acknowledge the Miss Early
The biggest mistake investors make is waiting too long to admit the deal has changed.
Warning signs include:
Rising holding costs eating into profit
Repeated buyer objections
No offers after strong showing activity
Appraisal or pricing feedback below expectations
Lesson:
The earlier you acknowledge the miss, the more exit options you still have.
Step 2: Re-Underwrite the Deal Using Today’s Reality
Once projections are missed, the original spreadsheet is no longer relevant.
Rebuild the numbers using:
Current market comps
Realistic days on market
Updated holding costs
Net proceeds after fees
Conservative pricing assumptions
Ask one critical question:
What is the best decision from today forward — not from day one?
This removes emotion from the exit decision.
Step 3: Evaluate Your Exit Options (Objectively)
Option 1: Adjust Price and Sell
Often the cleanest exit is the simplest one.
Best when:
Buyer demand still exists
A modest price reduction solves the problem
Holding costs exceed potential upside
Key mindset:
A smaller profit today can be better than a larger loss later.
Option 2: Reposition and Relist
If pricing isn’t the only issue, the property may need repositioning.
Examples:
Improved staging
Updated photography
Cosmetic touch-ups
Clearer buyer messaging
Best when:
Buyer feedback is consistent
Fixes are low-cost and fast
Market demand still exists
Avoid throwing good money after bad.
Option 3: Refinance and Hold
If the property can cash flow, refinancing may preserve long-term value.
Best when:
Rental demand is strong
Debt service is manageable
You can hold without stress
Risks include:
Appraisal risk
Qualification requirements
Longer capital tie-up
This works best when holding is a strategic pivot, not a forced one.
Option 4: Rent Temporarily, Then Sell
A hybrid approach can buy time.
Best when:
Sales market is temporarily soft
Rental income covers holding costs
Exit timing flexibility exists
This should be a deliberate plan, not a default reaction.
Option 5: Exit at Break-Even (or Small Loss)
Sometimes the smartest exit is the least emotional one.
Best when:
Market conditions continue to worsen
Capital is better deployed elsewhere
Stress and risk outweigh upside
Professional investors protect capital first. Pride is expensive.
Step 4: Factor in Financing Constraints
Exit decisions must align with loan structure
Consider:
Loan maturity timelines
Extension options
Interest reserve availability
Prepayment or refinance requirements
A missed projection becomes more dangerous when financing flexibility is limited.
Step 5: Choose the Exit That Protects Capital — Not Ego
The biggest exit is the one that:
Stops the bleeding
Preserves liquidity
Frees capital for better opportunities
Allows you to move forward quickly
Chasing the original projection often leads to deeper losses.
Common Exit Mistakes to Avoid
Waiting too long to adjust pricing
Over-renovating to “justify” value
Ignoring buyer feedback
Letting sunk costs drive decisions
Hoping the market bails you out
Hope is not an exit strategy.
The Bottom Line
When a deal misses projections, success is measured by how well you manage the exit, not how closely you cling to the original plan.
Experienced investors know:
Every deal won’t hit projections
Capital preservation is a win
Fast, disciplined exits create long-term success
The goal isn’t perfection — it’s resilience.